DER Forecasting for Electric Utilities

The grid your load forecast shows isn’t the grid your customers are building.

Rooftop solar, behind-the-meter storage, and demand response are reshaping load on your distribution feeders — reducing gross demand in some places, shifting it in others, creating two-way flows. LoadSEER models DER adoption at the parcel and circuit level so planners can see net load, not just gross load growth.

LoadSEER in action
DER FORECASTING · LOADSEER Multi-Scenario DER Analysis in LoadSEER Hourly · Monthly peaks · Seasonal peak/min · Multiple scenarios overlaid · Circuit level 🔵 Base load · 🔴 Forecasted load w/ DERs Peak: 1,738 kW (base) → 2,518 kW (forecast) · +45% LoadSEER Scenario Analysis (Compute) tab showing hourly, monthly peaks, and seasonal peak/min across multiple DER adoption scenarios simultaneously at the circuit level

LoadSEER Scenario Analysis (Compute) tab · circuit-level DER forecast showing hourly, monthly peaks, and seasonal peak/min

The planning challenge

Why DER forecasting must be done at circuit level

System-level DER forecasts can show aggregate solar adoption that looks manageable while masking significant locational variation. A service territory with 20% rooftop solar penetration may have specific feeders approaching 60% penetration — with reversed power flow and voltage regulation challenges — while adjacent feeders have minimal DER adoption. Only circuit-level DER forecasting reveals this variation.

Capabilities

What LoadSEER delivers

Parcel-level DER adoption modeling

Models rooftop solar and storage adoption at the individual parcel level using economic drivers, income, housing type, and solar irradiance.

Geospatial forecasting →

Net load forecasting at circuit resolution

Combines DER adoption forecasts with gross load projections to produce net load forecasts at circuit and substation level.

Circuit-level forecasting →

Multi-scenario DER analysis

Reference, moderate, and high DER adoption scenarios simultaneously.

Multi-scenario analysis →

Demand response program modeling

Models DR enrollment and dispatch at circuit level — quantifying achievable load reduction for NWA evaluation.

DSMore option value →

DER and EV combined

Integrates EV charging forecasts with solar, storage, and DR to produce a single net load projection.

EV load forecasting →

Regulatory documentation

Auditable DER adoption assumptions and net load outputs meeting documentation standards for IDP filings.

IDP regulatory support →

See DER forecasting at circuit level

Schedule a demo and walk through a scenario for your service territory.

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