EV Load Forecasting for Utilities

EV charging isn’t one load. It’s four — and they hit your grid in very different places.

Residential overnight charging, workplace midday peaks, DC fast-charging spikes, and fleet depot overnight blocks each stress different feeders at different times. LoadSEER models all four by charger type, at circuit-level resolution.

The planning challenge

Why charger type disaggregation matters

Most EV load forecasting treats electric vehicles as a single growth curve. That misses the key planning variable: location. Residential L2 concentrates on residential feeders in the evening. Workplace L2 hits commercial corridors at midday. Public DC fast charging creates large point loads near highway corridors. Fleet depot charging reaches MW scale at specific locations overnight. LoadSEER forecasts each type separately at parcel and circuit level.

EV LOAD FORECASTING · LOADSEER How EV Charger Type Shapes Feeder Peak Residential feeder · kW · Summer weekday · 30% EV penetration by 2035 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 kW Feeder Load (kW) 12am 4am 8am 12pm 4pm 8pm 12am Feeder thermal limit · 7,000 kW ⚡ Mixed fleet peak: 8,300 kW Exceeds thermal limit by 18% L2 overnight peak adds 2,000 kW at 2am Base feeder (no EVs) L1 residential L2 residential L2 workplace DCFC public Aggregate EV load (all types) Total feeder + all EVs — planning line

Illustrative residential feeder — base load, individual EV charger contributions, aggregate EV load, and total feeder planning line · 30% penetration by 2035

Capabilities

What LoadSEER delivers

Parcel-level EV adoption modeling

Models EV adoption at the individual parcel level using economic drivers, demographic data, housing type, income, and vehicle ownership patterns.

Explore geospatial forecasting →

Charger type disaggregation

Residential L2, workplace L2, public DC fast, and fleet/depot as separate load classes — each with distinct adoption trajectories, load profiles, and geographic footprints.

About LoadSEER →

Managed vs. unmanaged scenarios

Models both unmanaged charging and managed scenarios reflecting demand response, smart charging, and TOU rate incentives — quantifying infrastructure deferral value.

IDP support →

Multi-scenario adoption

Reference, moderate, and high EV adoption scenarios simultaneously to bound capital planning uncertainty.

Multi-scenario analysis →

Capacity headroom impact

Identifies which feeders and substations will reach capacity constraints under each scenario and when.

Capacity headroom reporting →

IDP regulatory support

Transparent, documented, multi-scenario EV load forecasts meeting commission standards for IDP filings.

IDP regulatory support →

See LoadSEER’s EV forecasting for your service territory

Schedule a demo and walk through a scenario for your service territory.

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